Kirsten's Sonoma Real Estate Blog

- Sonoma Homes for Sale - February 7, 2012 -

2012 is off to a busy start in Sonoma Valley real estate sales with 92 listings under contract for purchase.  Our inventory of available properties remains scant with only 150 active listings up for grabs.  Inventory is typically light this time of year but this February we are at a six year low.   So what's on the market in Sonoma?  According to the Bay Area Real Estate Information Service (BAREIS) the breakdown of 150 listings looks like this:

BAREIS data provides greater detail on our inventory including the averages and median statistics for available listings:

I'm often asked to explain "DOM" and "CDOM."  So here's the deal.  The first is Days on Market with the current listing broker.  CDOM means Cumulative Days on Market---the amount of time that the property has been on sale---including all listings with other brokers.  Clearly, the highest priced properties take a long time to sell.

Most folks want to know what's happening with single family homes so I've provided a simple bar graph showing short sales, bank-owned, and non-distressed listings.  We continue to see about 25% of our total inventory in the distressed property categories.

Our inventory changes from day to day.  If you want the very latest information---contact me and you'll know what you need to know---right away.

~ Swim Through the Sky - Speechless Sunday ~

You can see much of Northern California from this amazing wine country view property.  Off the pool deck and straight ahead lies the San Francisco Bay.  Marin, Napa, and Solano Counties are displayed in a 360 degree panorama when you paddle your feet.  On a clear day, Mount Tamalpais, Mount Diablo, and the Sierra Nevada Mountains appear within reach.   This incredible property is a distressed wine country sale.  If you're curious and want more information, please contact me.  It's simply heavenly.

~ First Time Buyers Vs. Investors, Lenders, Appraisers ~

Rates may be historically low and prices finally affordable for first-time home buyers but a recent survey by Campbell/Inside Mortgage Financing shows that cash-carrying investor buyers are still having a huge impact in sales of residential real estate.   The most current data compiled by the Campbell Housing Pulse Survey, for sales through December 2011, shows that cash buyers purchased a very significant number of homes in each month of 2011.

I'm a participant in this survey of 2500 agents around the country.  It's clear to me that cash-waving investor buyers continue to drive down home values because they often offer as much as 10-15 percent less than those with financing.  Sellers will go for cash primarily for two reasons.  First, a buyer with financing might offer more but if the house doesn't appraise at that purchase price the loan won't be approved.  The other reason is lenders are taking so long to approve loans that sellers, many of whom must sell,  can't or won't wait to see whether the financing will come through.

What's the take-away?  Lending policies and appraisal methods must change.  These policies are continuing a downward spiral in property values.  Not only are they hurting homeowners across the land---they are preventing wanna-be first-time buyers from realizing their dreams.

Don't get me wrong.  Cash investor buyers have an important role to play in the housing recovery.  They are purchasing a lot of the distressed properties available today.  But lenders and appraisers must make it easier first-time buyers to take advantage of today's prices and rates because these are the homeowners who invest in more than just the houses they buy.  They invest in the future stability and well-being of our nation's neighborhoods and communities.

Living in Sonoma with the Chinese "Sacred Lily"

The graceful beauty of this early blooming Narcissus has been a joyful sight every Winter that I've lived in Sonoma Valley.   I remember as a child seeing bunches of them in the hands of visitors stopping by to deliver Christmas cheer.   This year they are arriving in January, delayed---I'm guessing---by a lack of seasonal rain.  But here they are, anyway, in their dependable and determined way.  Living in Sonoma with Nature's bounty is such a privilege---every day!

~ Six Year Low for Sonoma Real Estate Listings ~

The supply of active real estate listings in Sonoma County is at a six year low.  This isn't any surprise to the buyers with whom I've been working lately.  They know there just aren't many homes to chose from.  It's especially difficult to find single level homes in Sonoma or properties for folks with specific requirements like a large level backyard for kids.  The chart below provides the big picture for real estate listings in Sonoma County in terms of months of available inventory.  It's provided by Trendgraphix using data from our multiple listing service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services.

We have not seen much in the way of new listings since the beginning of 2012.  Seems to me this could be a very good time for Sellers who've been waiting to list their homes to get on it.  The Spring market is coming soon!  If you are a buyer contact me for the latest data on listings in Sonoma County.

~ January 2012 Sonoma Homes for Sale ~

A year ago today there were 157 homes for sale in Sonoma.  Right now, the number of active Sonoma listings sits at 142.  Sonoma's residential listing inventory is low---just as it is in most markets around the country.   The majority of available properties, or nearly 4 out of 5,  are non-distressed listings. 

Bargain-minded buyers are clearly choosing to purchase distressed properties over non-distressed.  More than 75% of all listings under contract  involve Sonoma REOs or Sonoma short sales.

This last chart shows that just a "baker's dozen" of sales are pending as we begin the new year.  More than half of the pending sales are distressed properties, either short sales or bank-owned.

Our spring selling season starts in March.  I expect to see inventory grow fairly rapidly toward the end of February.  Stay tuned for an update on the new offerings!  And if you're considering a sale of your own Sonoma home, contact me for the latest market conditions.

~ The High Cost of Emotional Attachments in Real Estate ~

The house was listed for just under $1.3 Million.  It had been in escrow twice.   The first time,  right after it hit the spring market,  eager Buyers stepped up with a little under asking price and the Seller accepted.  If fell out of escrow, though, after the Buyers found another nearby property that was more to their liking and more in line with  their dreams.

The second offer was lower.  This typically happens after a failed escrow.  Sometimes listing agents will add a note to their comments in the MLS saying the escrow failed "through no fault of the property."  It doesn't matter.  Once an offer is withdrawn----for whatever reason---a listing is considered "tainted."   So,  the seller took the second and lower offer only to have the second Buyer walk after reading the Seller's disclosures.  The documents included an estimate for tens of thousands of dollars in repairs caused by years of deferred maintenance.  Buyer number two thought that a bit much.

Three months after that second failed deal, the house remained empty and listed at the same price.  By the way, it was initially listed at just under $2 Million back in 2008.

A third Buyer with a pretty sharp real estate agent made an offer for $1 Million.  Disclosures in hand, the offer was made in anticipation of a counter.  That counter came in at $1.2 Million.  Sheesh.  The third Buyer bravely offered more only to hear that the Seller was not going to respond because the gap between them in "perceived value" was too great.

The listing agents explained that the Seller was emotionally attached to the house.  They also indicated they knew that the Seller's emotionally-driven perception of value was unrealistic in today's market. 

The property has been taken off the market "to give it a rest."  It will probably reappear in the Spring and the Seller's perceived value will not have changed while the market value may have dropped by ---what do you think?---another 5 to 10%?

All told, the Seller's emotional attachment to this home will likely cost her hundreds of thousands of dollars.  That's a lot of money where most of us grew up!

~ Speechless Sunday - Sonoma County's Bennett Valley ~

~ Wordless Wednesday - An Acorn Woodpecker's Winter Stash ~

~ Sales Up 30% As Sonoma Home Prices Decline ~

Sales of single family homes in Sonoma County were up nearly 30% in October 2011 over sales in October 2010.  According to my friends at the Sonoma County Real Estate Report, sales in October rose nearly 7% from where they were in September.   Those are some pretty significant gains in units traded.   Also noteworthy were the declines in median sale prices of Sonoma County homes.  Year-to-year, county-wide, the decline was almost 10%.  The median sale price in October dropped 11.6% from the median in September.

The chart above shows inconsistent sales activity from town to town or in different micro-markets throughout Sonoma County.  This is an excellent illustration of why regional reports often fail to provide accurate information about market behavior in specific communities.   I note that Sonoma posted close to a 74% year-to-year increase in sales while the median price in Sonoma dropped a whopping 42% due to our increasing inventory of distressed properties.  The chart below shows how sales of homes under $500,000 continue to dominate the Sonoma County real estate scene.

Demand for Sonoma County real estate in many areas is very strong right now, even as we head into the holiday season.  If you are interested in knowing more about the inventory here or might be considering the sale of your property, please contact me now.  There are lots of buyers out there!